Beulah, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS63 KBIS 250552
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible tonight
  southwest and south central.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms Friday through this
  weekend. A few strong to severe storms are possible.

- Hot and humid Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to
  mid 90s, followed by a cooling trend beginning Sunday and
  continuing into the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A few showers are starting to appear on radar. The first couple
are in far southern McLean County and another is in far
southwestern McKenzie County. Per the SPC mesoanalysis page,
there is elevated instability of around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Therefore, while severe weather is still not anticipated
tonight, these showers will likely produce a few rumbles of
thunder at times during the overnight hours.

UPDATE
Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

For this update, have only made minor changes to the sky grids
to blend in the latest observations. Overall, quiet weather
continues across western and central North Dakota this evening.
Weak reflectivities were occasionally found over portions of
the far southwest earlier, though these were associated with
very high based clouds over a fairly dry near surface layer.
Thus, little to no precipitation associated with these
reflectivities were thought to reach the ground. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track at this time.


UPDATE
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

No major updates to the forecast were performed at this time.
Generally quiet weather is found across western and central
North Dakota, with mostly clear skies as scattered cumulus
clouds lingers. Still evaluating the potential for fog
development tonight, with an interrogation of BUFKIT model
soundings favorably shaped for advection fog Friday morning.
However, with fairly dry near surface conditions expected to be
found across the forecast area, CAMs continue to not bite at
visibility reductions. Will continue to monitor model trends,
but even if fog does end up developing Friday morning it should
be relatively sparse compared to the this (Thursday) morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Currently, a broad area of weak high pressure is situated over
the forecast area. A weak shortwave within a broad northwest
upper flow is producing an area of showers and possibly some
isolated thunderstorms from the northern James River Valley,
eastward into eastern ND. This non-severe activity should
propagate eastward through the afternoon. Other than that small
area of convection, expect mostly dry conditions through the
afternoon with highs mainly in the 80s.

For tonight, it looks to be mostly dry this evening, the
possible exception may be the far southwest. Convection over
northeast Wyoming into southeast Montana may track east near the
SD border, but most guidance has this activity remaining south
of the border. Late this evening and more likely overnight, we
see increasing warm advection over southwest and into south
central ND. The atmosphere is quite dry over the far southwest
above 10-15kft but moistens as you go east. CAMS have been
advertising convection developing southwest into south central
ND mostly after midnight as the llj increases. The main hazard
would probably be some small hail. Although a few larger
hailstones can`t be ruled out, the thinking at this time is
that severe weather will not be an issue.

Friday and Saturday will bring a couple days of hot and humid
weather to the local area with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
Each day will bring a moderate to strong instability to much of
western and central North Dakota. Friday will bring generally
weak shear of 20-30 knots. There is a northern stream wave well
to our north with an weak reflection at the surface that tracks
into the forecast area in the late afternoon/early evening
hours. This may be enough of a focus mechanism to spark
convection. It`s possible that initially there could be a
supercell capable of producing large hail to golf ball size, but
given the overall weakly sheared environment, hail up to the
size of ping pong balls was decided on, which remains consistent
with this mornings forecast. Winds to 60 mph will also be a
hazard, as well as very heavy rain. Although there is a non-zero
threat of a tornado, would like to see a bit more consistency in
the CAMS and another run of the medium range models before
advertising.

This front stalls out over the area and may be the focus for
convection again on Saturday. Once again it will become very
unstable Saturday afternoon, with shear increasing from the west
during the day. Currently there is a marginal risk for severe
storms on Saturday. Think a lot of what happens Saturday may
depend on how things play out tomorrow, regarding where
boundaries lie and which areas may be favored for convection.
Would not be surprised to see an upgrade to slight risk for
some portion of the forecast area as well, but predictability
remains quite high at this time. Will continue to monitor.

Sunday may bring another round of thunderstorms, but will also
bring the beginnings of a cooling trend that continues into the
middle of next week. Highs in the 80s Sunday drop into the 70s
by Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time it does appear that the
probability of severe weather tapers as we enter next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are generally expected through the
period. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
tonight mainly in southwestern and south central ND. The
terminal with the highest probability (30 percent) of seeing
any showers and/or thunderstorms during the overnight hours is
KBIS. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop Friday afternoon and evening. Reductions in ceilings and
visibility, as well as erratic winds, are all possible while
any showers and thunderstorms are ongoing.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Telken